In 2025, global wine production is estimated between 228 and 235 million hectoliters (mhl), with an average of 232 mhl. This represents a 3% increase compared to 2024, when global production reached a historic low, but it still remains approximately 7% below the five-year average.

The moderate growth results from slightly positive developments in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, although many regions remain below their usual levels.

The main contributing factors include:

• Pronounced climate variability, with alternations between drought, heatwaves, excessive rainfall, and storms;
• Pressure from cryptogamic diseases such as downy mildew, rot, or powdery mildew in high-humidity areas;
• Vineyard restructuring, including area reductions in some countries (e.g., France).

From a market perspective, the relatively low global production for the third consecutive year does not create major supply tensions, given moderate demand and high stocks in mature markets.

Romania is among the few European countries in 2025 with significantly increasing production, positively contributing to the regional balance and offsetting declines in other major producing countries. Romania is in the positive zone, alongside Austria and Hungary, with a 29% increase compared to 2024 and a wine production volume of 4.1 mhl, above the five-year average.

European Union (EU)

In 2025, EU wine production is estimated at 140 mhl, up 2.1 mhl (+2%) from 2024. However, it remains 8% below the five-year average. If confirmed, 2025 will be the second weakest year for EU wine production in the 21st century.

The EU continues to represent 60% of global production, maintaining a stable share over the past decade.

Trends in Key EU Producing Countries:

• Italy is still the global leader in 2025: 47.4 mhl (+3.3 mhl, +8%), 2% above five-year average. Recovery driven by a mild spring, balanced rainfall, and a summer season without major extremes.
• France in its second consecutive weak year: 35.9 mhl, 16% below five-year average. Affected by drought, intense heat, and restructuring (-20 kha in Bordeaux and Languedoc-Roussillon). If confirmed, the lowest volume since 1957.
• Spain continues to face difficulties: 29.4 mhl, -1.7 mhl (-6%), 15% below five-year average. Third consecutive year of severe drought.

Other EU Developments: Germany: 7.3 mhl (-6%; -14% vs five-year average), affected by heavy September rains. Portugal: 6.2 mhl (-11%). Bulgaria: 0.6 mhl (-5%), lowest in decades. Greece: 1.5 mhl (+9%), -20% vs five-year average. Slovakia, Luxembourg, Cyprus: moderate growth but still below average.

Romania is one of the best-performing EU countries in 2025: 4.1 mhl, +29% vs 2024, slightly above five-year average. Growth driven by favorable late-season rains, improving berry development and yields.

Northern Hemisphere (Outside EU)

• USA: 21.7 mhl (+3% vs 2024, 9% below five-year average). Partial recovery, contrasting developments between California (+4%), Washington (-21%), Oregon (+30%).
• Russia: 5.1 mhl, similar to 2014.
• Georgia: 2.1 mhl, -14% vs 2024 record, +2% above five-year average.
• Moldova: 1.4 mhl, +18% vs 2024, +3% above five-year average. Favorable spring rainfall, no water stress.
• Switzerland: 1.0 mhl, +29% vs 2024, +16% above average, recovery after 2014 frosts.

Southern Hemisphere

The Southern Hemisphere accounts for 21% of global production, estimated 49 mhl (+7% vs 2024, 5% below five-year average).

• Australia: 11.6 mhl, +11% vs 2024, 2% below five-year average.
• New Zealand: 3.7 mhl, +32% vs 2024, 15% above five-year average.
• Argentina: 10.7 mhl, similar to 2024, slightly below five-year average.
• Chile: 8.4 mhl, -10% vs 2024, 26% below five-year average. Fourth consecutive decline due to drought and heatwaves.
• Brazil: 2.9 mhl, +38% vs 2024, 15% above five-year average.
• Uruguay: 0.6 mhl, -7% vs 2024, 8% below average since 2020.
• South Africa: 8.8 mhl, +16% vs 2024, near five-year average.

2025 shows a modest global production recovery, but levels remain below five-year averages due to unstable climate. Global markets remain balanced, marked by weak demand and high stocks. Western Europe continues to face drought, restructuring, and extreme weather, while the Southern Hemisphere exhibits mixed dynamics with significant recoveries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa) and severe declines (Chile).

Alina Iancu

17/11/2025